No easy egg for you. Inflation hits your omlette

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/lofty-egg-prices-showing-no/story.aspx?guid=%7B479DD084%2D1ED3%2D4437%2DB187%2D61752B8EB49C%7D







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RSS whores, read all you can. Best financial blogs are here

Footnoted.org (http://www.footnoted.org/)
Frank Barnako’s Media Blog (http://blogs.marketwatch.com/barnako)
GannonOnInvesting (http://www.gannononinvesting.com/)
The microcap speculator (http://www.microcapspeculator.blogspot.com/)
Stock Market Beat (http://www.stockmarketbeat.com/)
Berkshire Ruminations (http://berkshireruminations.blogspot.com/)
The Kirk Report (http://www.thekirkreport.com/)
TraderFeed (http://www.traderfeed.blogspot.com/)
SeekingAlpha (http://www.seekingalpha.com/)
Ticker Sense (http://www.tickersense.typepad.com/)
ModernGraham.com (http://www.moderngraham.com/)
TheStockMasters (http://www.thestockmasters.com/)
BloggingStocks (http://www.bloggingstocks.com/)
Hilary On Stocks (www.journals.aol.com/hilaryonstocks/hilaryonstocks)
Value Discipline (http://www.valuediscipline.blogspot.com/)
Random Roger’s Big Picture (http://www.randomroger.blogspot.com/)
Equity Investment Ideas (http://www.equityinvestmentideas.blogspot.com/)
Absolutely No DooDahs (http://www.billakanodoodahs.com/)
Street Insider.com 13D Tracker (http://www.13dtracker.blogspot.com/)

Thanks to http://247wallst.blogspot.com/2006/09/twenty-best-financial-blogs.html

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USD/Yen chart

">http://www.insidefutures.com/cache/5aedb07afe87762230b41eb21a3e23d3.png">

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Dilemmmmmaaaaa of US economy - where is peace between spending and income

Consumer demand is being crippled and remained weak for the third month in a row after U.S. consumer spending was flat in February after adjusted for inflation. Real consumer spending however rose 0.1% but still not enough to help the suffering U.S. economy. Since consumer spending is about 70% of the U.S. gross domestic product, its a driver and measure of the economy's well being.

Inflation, falling housing sector and a diminishing labor force are catching up to the economy adding more weight and pressure to growth as it causes a significant slowdown to the extent of a recession. Surprisingly, inflation has moderated in February as core PCE, the Feds favorite inflation measure, rose 0.1% from a previous rise of 0.3% reading in January. The annual core prices inclined 2% taking levels back within the Feds comfort zone.

As for income, nominal incomes rose unexpected to 0.5% in February compared to the projected rise of 0.3% on the backs of government transfer payments. After-tax, inflation-adjusted income inclined 0.3% as well marking the largest real disposable income increase since last August.

Ironically, spending on durable goods in fact rose for the first time since September by 0.2% when the durable goods orders fell by 1.7%!! Something doesn't quite add up! Real spending on non durables though dropped 0.1% being the third consecutive decline.

In a different report, the University of Michigan released its confidence final reading for the month of March revising it down to 69.5 from the preliminary reading of 70.5 indicating that confidence is diminishing as consumers start to lose faith in their economy.

The status of the U.S. is still blurry as spending is most probably to come in flat for the third quarter while inflation during the previous month has eased to remain within the Fed's comfort zone. This still doesn't change the fact that Americans should admit it and face reality! It's time to wake up and smell the recession ladies and gentlemen

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20080328/income-vs-spending.htm





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Obama plans 'major' speech on economy

Details weren't available Wednesday morning, but the Democratic presidential contender is scheduled to speak at 9:15 a.m. Eastern Thursday at Cooper Union for the Advancement of Science and Art in New York City.

Obama's speech on the economy will follow remarks made Tuesday by Republican nominee-in-waiting John McCain about the housing market, and housing market plans laid out by New York Sen. Hillary Clinton on Monday.

McCain said top U.S. mortgage lenders should provide "maximum support" to help cash-strapped but creditworthy customers keep their homes and called for greater transparency in the lending process.

Clinton is seeking a $30 billion emergency housing fund that would go to states and localities to help head off foreclosures, as well as backing other steps like a bill that would expand the government's capacity to guarantee mortgages that are reworked on affordable terms.

"The Clinton approach demonstrates, in our view, a clear preference to use government intervention in the mortgage markets," wrote analyst Brian Gardner of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods in a note on Wednesday.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/obama-plans-major-speech-economy/story.aspx?guid=%7B6819193F%2D1033%2D4A6F%2D8C8F%2DECAE4FC61A6D%7D


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1970 Bear Stearns-Rare Cancelled Stock Certificate

Extremely rare, purple Westrn Union  100 Share Stock Certificate issued to Bear Stearns & Co. in 1970. Certificate also has Bear Stearns endorsement stamp on the back. Very low serial #69. Very few of these purple Westrn Union certificates exist, and not many are issued to Bear Sterns. Bear Stearns stocks are very hot now that they have went broke. Very rare collectible, would look great framed.

                                             Has no fold lines, Has minor cancellations.

                                                               Pristine condition. 

                                                  Printer: American Bank Note Company                                               

                    The certificates shown in the scans are the exact certificates you will receive.

 All stocks are 100% authentic. We do not sell reproductions or copies. All stocks are complete and if they appear cut off, that is due to scanner limitations.

Full ebay listing

http://cgi.ebay.com/1970-Bear-Stearns-Rare-Cancelled-Stock-Certificate_W0QQitemZ310034953731QQihZ021QQcategoryZ255QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

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Roubini asks important question: Is Bear Stearns the 'Sacrificial Lamb' or is the Fed?

http://www.rgemonitor.com/

• Bloomberg: JPMorgan boosts its all-stock bid for BS to $10 a share from $2.52, and strikes a deal with Bear Stearns's board to purchase about 40% of the company in a transaction that doesn't require shareholder approval.
• Whalen (IRA): JPMorgan crowd won't be laughing much longer: analysis of risk exposures suggests that JPM needs almost five times current capital levels to fully support its economic risks (Citi almost 3x) 
  
• Farrell: Fed set an example with Bear before opening the liquidity tap for all other primary dealers--> Bear is the 'sacrificial lamb'
• Siegel (Wharton): "I think that when we look back, we will say [Bernanke] did everything he reasonably could. We're going to have maybe a mild recession, but we're going to avoid anything worse. Bernanke may very well easily turn out to be a hero here, when everything is said and done and the recovery comes."
• Roubini: First fully wipe out shareholders, then fire all the senior management and have the government take over such a bankrupt institution for orderly liquidation before a penny of public money is wasted in bailing it out.
• Bear could not hang on until March 27 for Fed's TSLF operation announced on March 11 (i.e. swap sound Treasuries against tainted AAA mortgage paper)
• Gongloff (WSJ): Shotgun JPMorgan and Bear Stearns wedding reminiscent of the "convoy system" employed for decades by Japanese banks, in which strong institutions propped up and absorbed weak ones, at the government's urging.
• Economist: JPMorgan reportedly agreed to buy Bear Stearns for $2/share (about $236m). Agreement was backed by the Fed and Treasury in an attempt to stave off a run on other banks. Fed is to fund up to $30bn of Bear's less liquid assets to prevent JPMorgan's strong balance sheet from being hurt by the deal and avoid firesales
• Fitch (via RGE): At the beginning of the turmoil Bear Stearns had the highest toxic waste ("residual balance") exposure as percent of adjusted equity on balance sheet: BSC = 54.5%; LEH = 53.3%; GS = 21%; MER = 17.8%; MS = 8.3%.
• Cumberland: Bear (= second largest mortgage underwriter) has a business model that is becoming obsolete. It is heavily reliant on U.S. fixed income underwriting and trading. There is virtually no footprint outside of the U.S., and they are rapidly losing their competitive position as other brokerage firms pounce on Bear's weaknesses

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Home sellers get religion. Finally.

On MarketWatch first take:

• March traditionally kicks off the spring selling season, and a flood of inventory onto the market now could easily reverse February's gains.
  
• Prices are falling, making homes more affordable, but in many markets they are still wildly out of relation to buyers' ability to pay.
• Rates are affordable in the mortgage market, but only the most-creditworthy borrowers are getting the chance to obtain those rates; many marginal borrowers are still frozen out.
• The number of delinquencies and foreclosures is continuing to grow and will likely do so for several quarters yet, threatening to pour more inventory on the market and take more buyers out of it.

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Ken Rosen still sour on housing

Don't expect the rise in existing-home sales to signal a turnaround, warns Ken Rosen of UC Berkeley. He says there's more problems ahead for the housing market.

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Ken Rosen still sour on housing

Don't expect the rise in existing-home sales to signal a turnaround, warns Ken Rosen of UC Berkeley. He says there's more problems ahead for the housing market.

Check this video - http://www.marketwatch.com

http://services.brightcove.com/services/viewer/federated_f8/452319854" bgcolor="#FFFFFF" flashVars="videoId=1468256941&playerId=452319854&viewerSecureGatewayURL=https://services.brightcove.com/services/amfgateway&servicesURL=http://services.brightcove.com/services&cdnURL=http://admin.brightcove.com&domain=embed&autoStart=false&" base="http://admin.brightcove.com" name="flashObj" width="486" height="412" seamlesstabbing="false" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" swLiveConnect="true" pluginspage="">http://www.macromedia.com/shockwave/download/index.cgi?P1_Prod_Version=ShockwaveFlash">

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Naked Capitalism says: Did the Fed Prevent a Financial Chernobyl?

Did the Fed Prevent a Financial Chernobyl?
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/03/did-fed-prevent-financial-chernobyl.html


Listen to this article There are two useful but frustrating articles addressing different aspects of the extraordinary measures implemented by the Federal Reserve in the last ten days, in particular the bailout of Bear Stearns.

A New York Times article, "What Created This Monster," is very much worth reading despite its shortcomings. It attempts to say how we got to where we are today, but lacking a clear problem definition (are the markets in trouble due to excessive leverage? Overly complex instruments? Lack of transparency? Poorly thought and inadequate regulations? Those negative real interest rates under Greenspan?) it comes off being unfocused. However, it interviews a lot of Big Names and have some fascinating moments. My fave is this one:

Two months before he resigned as chief executive of Citigroup last year amid nearly $20 billion in write-downs, Charles O. Prince III sat down in Washington with Representative Barney Frank, the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee. Among the topics they discussed were investment vehicles that allowed Citigroup and other banks to keep billions of dollars in potential liabilities off of their balance sheets — and away from the scrutiny of investors and analysts.

“Why aren’t they on your balance sheet?” asked Mr. Frank, Democrat of Massachusetts. The congressman recalled that Mr. Prince said doing so would have put Citigroup at a disadvantage with Wall Street investment banks that were more loosely regulated and were allowed to take far greater risks. (A spokeswoman for Mr. Prince confirmed the conversation.)

It was at that moment, Mr. Frank says, that he first realized just how much freedom Wall Street firms had, and how lightly regulated they were in comparison with commercial banks, which have to answer to an alphabet soup of government agencies like the Federal Reserve and the comptroller of the currency.


Eeek. Barney Frank is really smart and diligent as Congressmen go, and he didn't know this? Ooh, we are in for a rough ride.

We also have a sleep deprived, immediately-post-Bear-deal statement from Jamie Dimon:

We have a terribly global world and, over all, financial regulation has not kept up with that,


But the story is also annoying on some levels. It mentions derivatives frequently, yet fails to define terns or explain which sorts are troubling and why. No one is worried about exchange traded equity and index options, for instance; it's the OTC variety which is the focus of worry, particularly credit default swaps, which is arguably a big unregulated insurance market. There is also some good detail on how Greenspan discouraged the regulation of derivatives, and some long overdue reservations about innovation for innovation's sake.

The other sighting of the evening is Ambrose Evans-Pritchard's "Fed's rescue halted a derivatives Chernobyl." The piece is a little more breathless than I like, but argues that the reason that the Fed intervened with Bear was to prevent a crisis in the CDS market. Unlike the New York Times piece, the Evans-Pritchard has a few useful factoid that I have not seen elsewhere.

The flaws in both pieces ultimately are not those of the authors, but reflect the inherent difficulty in researching complex, largely or completely unregulated over the counter markets. Data is scarce, so a reporter is heavily dependent on triangulating among source.

And the scary bit is that the regulators are not much better able to get information than the press.

From the Telegraph:

We may never know for sure whether the Federal Reserve's rescue of Bear Stearns averted a seizure of the $516 trillion derivatives system, the ultimate Chernobyl for global finance.

"If the Fed had not stepped in, we would have had pandemonium," said James Melcher, president of the New York hedge fund Balestra Capital.

"There was the risk of a total meltdown at the beginning of last week. I don't think most people have any idea how bad this chain could have been, and I am still not sure the Fed can maintain the solvency of the US banking system."

All through early March the frontline players had watched in horror as Bear Stearns came under assault and then shrivelled into nothing as its $17bn reserve cushion vanished.

Melcher was already prepared - true to form for a man who made a fabulous return last year betting on the collapse of US mortgage securities. He is now turning his sights on Eastern Europe, the next shoe to drop.

"We've been worried for a long time there would be nobody to pay on the other side of our contracts, so we took profits early and got out of everything. The Greenspan policies that led to this have been the most irresponsible episode the world has ever seen," he said.

Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has moved with breathtaking speed to contain the crisis. Last Sunday night, he resorted to the "nuclear option", invoking a Depression-era clause - Article 13 (3) of the Federal Reserve Act - to be used in "unusual and exigent circumstances".

The emergency vote by five governors allows the Fed to shoulder $30bn of direct credit risk from the Bear Stearns carcass. By taking this course, the Fed has crossed the Rubicon of central banking.

To understand why it has torn up the rule book, take a look at the latest Security and Exchange Commission filing by Bear Stearns. It contains a short table listing the broker's holding of derivatives contracts as of November 30 2007.

Bear Stearns had total positions of $13.4 trillion. This is greater than the US national income, or equal to a quarter of world GDP - at least in "notional" terms. The contracts were described as "swaps", "swaptions", "caps", "collars" and "floors". This heady edifice of new-fangled instruments was built on an asset base of $80bn at best.

On the other side of these contracts are banks, brokers, and hedge funds, linked in destiny by a nexus of interlocking claims. This is counterparty spaghetti. To make matters worse, Lehman Brothers, UBS, and Citigroup were all wobbling on the back foot as the hurricane hit.

"Twenty years ago the Fed would have let Bear Stearns go bust," said Willem Sels, a credit specialist at Dresdner Kleinwort. "Now it is too interlinked to fail."

The International Swaps and Derivatives Association says the vast headline figures in the contracts are meaningless. Positions are off-setting. The actual risk is magnitudes lower.

The Bank for International Settlements uses a concept of "gross market value" to weight the real exposure. This is roughly 2 per cent of the notional level. For Bear Stearns this would be $270bn, or so.

"There is no real way to gauge the market risk," said an official

"We don't know how much is backed by collateral. We don't know what would happen in a crisis, and if we don't know, nobody does," he said.

Under the rescue deal, JP Morgan Chase will take over Bear Stearns' $13.4 trillion contracts - lock, stock, and barrel.

But JP Morgan is already up to its neck in this soup, with $77 trillion of contracts. It will now have $90 trillion on its books, a sixth of the global market.

Risk is being concentrated further. There are echoes of the old reinsurance chains at Lloyd's, but on a vaster scale.

The most neuralgic niche is the $45 trillion market for credit default swaps (CDS). These CDS swaps are a way of betting on the credit quality of companies without having to buy the underlying bonds, which are less liquid. They have long been the bête noire of New York Fed chief Timothy Geithner, alarmed that 10 banks make up 89 per cent of the contracts.

"The same names show up in multiple types of positions. These create the potential for squeezes in cash markets, magnifying the risk of adverse dynamics," he said.

"They could increase systemic risk, by amplifying rather than dampening the movement in asset prices," he said.

This is what happened as the banking crisis gathered pace. The CDS spreads measuring default risk on Bear Stearns debt rocketed from 246 to 792 in a single day on March 13 amid - untrue - rumours that the broker was preparing to invoke bankruptcy protection.

Was it the spike in spreads that set off the panic run on Bear Stearns by New York insiders? Or are the CDS spreads merely serving as a barometer?

In the old days it was hard for speculators to take "short" bets on bonds. Credit derivatives open up a whole new game.

"It is now much easier to short credit, " said James Batterman, a derivatives expert at Fitch Ratings in New York. "CDS swaps can be used for speculation, and that can cause skittish markets to overshoot," he said.

For now the meltdown panic has subsided. Yet the hottest document flying around the City last week was a paper by Barclays Capital probing what might happen in a counterparty default.

It is not for bedtime reading. Direct losses from a CDS breakdown alone could be $80bn, but the potential risks are much greater.

In theory, the contracts are matching. One sides loses, the other gains, operating through a neutral counterparty (ie Bear Stearns). But if the system seizes up, the mechanism is not neutral at all. It becomes viciously one-sided.

"Upon the default of the counterparty, [traded] derivatives would be immediately repriced, with spreads widening dramatically," said the Barclays report.

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246 to 792 in a single day

This is what happened as the banking crisis gathered pace. The CDS spreads measuring default risk on Bear Stearns debt rocketed from 246 to 792 in a single day on March 13 amid - untrue - rumours that the broker was preparing to invoke bankruptcy protection

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/03/did-fed-prevent-financial-chernobyl.html

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JPMorgan in Negotiations to Raise Bear Stearns Bid

JPMorgan Chase was in talks on Sunday night for a deal that would quintuple its offer for Bear Stearns, the beleaguered investment bank, in an effort to pacify angry Bear shareholders, according to people involved in the negotiations.

The sweetened offer is intended to win over stockholders who vowed to fight the original fire-sale deal, struck only a week ago at the behest of the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department.

Under the terms being discussed, JPMorgan would pay $10 a share in stock for Bear, up from its initial offer of $2 a share — a figure that represented a mere one-fifteenth of Bear’s going market price.

The Fed, which must approve any new deal, was balking at the new offer price on Sunday night after several days of frantic, secret negotiations, these people said. As a result, it was still possible the renegotiated deal might be postponed or collapse entirely, said these people, who were granted anonymity because of their confidentiality agreements.

If the Fed were to reject the new proposal, it could set off a furor among shareholders of both firms that the government was preventing them from making a fair deal.

In an unusual move, Bear’s board was seeking to authorize the sale of 39.5 percent of the firm to JPMorgan in an effort to move closer to majority shareholder approval. Under state law in Delaware, where the companies are incorporated, a company can sell up to 40 percent without shareholder approval.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/24/business/24deal.html

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Dude issues correction

http://youtube.com/watch?v=AyGc_rlF8aA





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World's fair

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AT28AtRQVco&NR=1

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$500 for stimulating economy

http://youtube.com/watch?v=MZotAcjB4bQ

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$500 for stimulating economy

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play holiday portfolio on thestreet.com

The concept behind the holiday portfolio is simple: I select a group of five stocks that I believe deserve watching over the next 12 months, and I follow them -- regardless of their performance -- throughout the year. I'll revisit the portfolio on each market holiday and, at times, make comments about the stocks in RealMoney's Columnist Conversation. The only way a stock is removed from the portfolio is if it merges with another company or ceases to trade on a major exchange.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10408853/1/holiday-portfolio-some-broken-eggs.html






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On Barrons ~~~~ CHANGE BREWS AT STARBUCKS ~~~~

Starbucks (SBUX) may be in Clover, but the changes it introduced at Wednesday’s company conference aren’t going to push shareholders into the clover anytime soon. The coffee retailer unveiled a few new wrinkles in its business strategy and retailer interior design, including the deployment of a new line of single-cup coffee makers, and the purchase of an espresso-machine manufacturer that makes the so-called Clover line of appliances. McAdams Wright Ragen, the Seattle investment boutique that covers companies in Seattle, where Starbucks is based, said the changes, which also include plans to launch the equivalent of an on-line suggestion box, ”on paper, appear to be a little less t! han dramatic,” and likely won’t ”move the needle” on valuation anytime soon. But the firm said it liked the thrust of the moves, and believe they could pay off down the road for shareholders. Likewise, Cowen said the ”hockey-stick ramp” in the stock price is still several years away, and the moves heighten the risk of some modest disruption to EPS visibility in the short term, but nevertheless acclaimed what it described as bold action.





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Joined "Gordon Gekko Greed is Good Group (GGGGG)"

Wake up pal! Either you are in or you are out!

I am talking liquid.




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Asia Hit Hard by Bear Sterns News

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FED's moral hazard dilemma and continuation of MAINSTREET ignorance

 

 

Moral hazard is the prospect that a party insulated from risk may behave differently from the way it would behave if it were fully exposed to the risk. Moral hazard arises because an individual or institution does not bear the full consequences of its actions, and therefore has a tendency to act less carefully than it otherwise would, leaving another party to bear some responsibility for the consequences of those actions. For example, an individual with insurance against automobile theft may be less vigilant about locking his car, because the negative consequences of automobile theft are (partially) borne by the insurance company.

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Gold Rush - Get Some NOW

Yellow fever strikes

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Rate cut discussions are pressure games

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Barron's says Home Depot Could Get Hammered

Nice work ANALyst, making a call when soccer moms are busy predicting next economic moves -

WE ARE LOWERING OUR rating on shares of Home Depot, which is based on a six-month outlook, from Market Perform to Underperform, and we believe investors should sell the stock.

We are also lowering estimates as we believe recent macro data suggest that the home-improvement cycle is a long way from the bottom. The company's monthly same-store-sales results decelerated as the most recent quarter progressed and were down 10.8%


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Where to Invest When the Market's a Mess

Gold diggers are in full swing. Spotting silver lining and picking few stocks:

Algonquin Power Income Fund
Climate Exchange PLC
Chicago Mercantile Exchange


Full analysis


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Why GOOG is a screaming buy

http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid1078966384/bclid1137812485/bctid1463310866


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game theory

Eppes brothers should run our economy.

NUMB3RS (pronounced Numbers) is an American television show produced by brothers Ridley and Tony Scott. It follows FBI Special Agent Don Eppes (Rob Morrow) and his mathematical genius brother, Charlie Eppes (David Krumholtz), who helps Don solve crimes for the FBI. It was created by Nicolas Falacci and Cheryl Heuton, produced by CBS Paramount Network Television, and airs on the CBS network in the U.S. It is also shown on Five US and ITV3 in the U.K, although it was also shown during a late-night slot on the main ITV Network for a brief period of time.

The show focuses equally on the relationships between Don Eppes, his brother Charlie Eppes and their father, Alan Eppes (Judd Hirsch), and on the brothers' efforts to fight crime, normally in Los Angeles. A typical episode begins with a crime, which is subsequently investigated by a team of FBI agents led by Don and mathematically described by Charlie, with the help of Larry Fleinhardt (Peter MacNicol) and/or Amita Ramanujan (Navi Rawat). The insights provided by Charlie's mathematics are always in some way crucial to solving the crime.

The series was the most popular show airing on Friday evenings throughout its first three seasons;[1] the fourth season began on September 28, 2007.

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Oil Prices

We should get Federal Reserve to work with Saudis to start printing "oil"

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Which of Wall Street's 25 primate species is the greediest?

[md-attach-image: 1] Beware the beast Man, for he is the Devil's pawn:" Cornelius the anthropologist is reading aloud from the ancient Sacred Scrolls of the Apes: "Alone among God's primates, he kills for sport or lust or greed." Sound familiar? The scene is on the mythical "Planet of the Apes," probably in the great Wall Street Jungle.

 

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I am not Spitzer, my dick is legal.

One day after taking office, Gov. David A. Paterson held a noontime news conference to discuss news reports that he and his wife, Michelle Paige Paterson, had extramarital affairs during a strain in their marriage, which began in 1992. He acknowledged having affairs with "a number of women," including one state employee, "several years ago," but that the relationships were over and that he and his wife had repaired their marriage.

With his wife standing by his side, the new governor expressed regret for past mistakes but said he was coming forward to clear the air and avoid any "innuendo" or speculation that might arise. "I didn't break the law," he said, toward the end of his news conference, at the State Capitol in Albany. "I didn't violate an oath. I didn't use knowingly campaign funds. I didn't use state funds at all. I know that. I don't think institutionally there were any violations here. However, the public wants to know who its elected officials are, and sometimes, even though you are human and you are someone that just has feelings and has faults, there comes a time, perhaps, when you have to tell the public."

With cops like these, Wall Street is destined to go to dogs.

 

http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/03/18/paterson-to-hold-news-conference/index.html?hp

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They just don't get JP Morgan

Tragedy and comedy go hand in hand - funny video on TheStreet.com

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US economy in worst condition since World War 2

Greenspan spoke. Book royalties were not enough, this Einstein finally found his mouth.

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Which society doesn't run on greed?

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Milton Friedman era is over?

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This guy IS the problem

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Dude we are so fucked

LEH is next

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Roubini said everything. He did not use D-word

D means dirty and d means depression.

 

The fact that the US is now in a recession is, at this point, without much doubt even if the consensus forecast � always behind the curve � now gives only even odds (49% according to the WSJ panel of forecasters, 50% according to the Bloomberg panel) to a recession outcome. The issue right now is not anymore whether the US will experience a soft landing or a hard landing but rather how hard the hard landing will be. The latest data point to a severe recession ahead lasting at least four quarters rather than mild recession that most forecasters are now predicting: a fall in employment in January; very high and elevated levels of initial and continued unemployment claims; a non-manufacturing ISM that literally plunged; falling � in real term � retail sales in the holiday season; mediocre results and falling sales for most retailers in January; plunging auto sales; very weak and further falling consumer confidence; a credit crunch that is becoming more severe in credit market as measured by a variety of credit spreads; the beginning of a severe recession in commercial real estate; a worsening housing recession; sharply falling home prices; evidence of a serious credit crunch in the banking system based on the Fed survey of loan officers; a correction in all major stock markets and the beginning of a bear market in the NASDAQ; serious evidence of a global economic slowdown, especially in Europe, with outright recession ahead in some European countries. All these indicators points towards a severe recession. 

Believing � as the consensus now does � that this will be a mild two-quarter recession and that growth will recover in H2 of 2008 is wishful thinking. The last two recessions � in 1990-91 and 2001 � lasted almost three quarters (precisely 8 months) while the current recession looks fundamentally more severe than the latter two for three reasons: we are experiencing the worst housing recession ever in US history, a shopped-out, saving-less and debt-burdened consumer is now in financial trouble and retrenching; and  we have a severe systemic financial crisis. Thus this recession will be longer, deeper and uglier than the previous two.

Since in the previous article I described a 12 steps scenarios towards a financial meltdown and a deep recession the crucial policy question is whether the Fed and other policy officials can prevent such a scenario of a systemic financial crisis.  

I will present in this article the eight reasons why I am skeptical that such a systemic risk scenario can be avoided�

For quick history lesson - http://youtube.com/watch?v=HoptH8TqasE

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Carlyle Capital to file to liquidate the company

Carlyle Capital to file to liquidate the company

 

Channel Islands affiliate of the Washington private-equity firm Carlyle Group, said it would apply under Guernsey's companies law to liquidate the firm. Holders of the Class A shares have approved the move, Carlyle Capital said. The company "received default notices from its remaining two lenders and it believes that its lenders have now taken possession of substantially all of its U.S.-government-agency AAA-rated residential-mortgage-backed securities," Carlyle Capital said in a statement late on Sunday. "As a result, the company believes its liabilities exceed its assets." Carlyle said the board recommended winding up the company's affairs after analyzing its prospects and "careful consideration of other options for continuing the business. The company will work with the court-appointed liquidator to ensure an orderly realization of assets and their subsequent distribution." Carlyle Capital was formed in August 2006 and went public in July 2007

 

Uncle Ben we are so screwed.

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CNBC on Bear Stearns

$2 bucks!

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igotCRAMERED.com in Bear Stearns (NYSE:BSC), Jim Cramer

Booya MF#$rs

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100% Chance of Recession & Stock Market to Plunge 50-60%

David Tice saved money for his clients. Remember this name - DAVID TICE

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"Family Guy": Stewie Griffin Meets Wall Street

Tragedy + Comedy = Wall Street 2008

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Boiler Room First Sale

JT Marlin. Did you say JT Marlin!!!

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Boiler room - ABC

JP Morgan HR Manager?

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Sheep get slaughtered

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Lock-and-load 2008 version

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Caution: Crumbling Wall Street earnings ahead

CNN so late to party:

Bear Stearns is in the center of the bulls eye. On Friday, the brokerage firm said a serious liquidity crisis had prompted it to secure an emergency loan from rival JPMorgan Chase. Bear's stock plummeted 47% and the firm ended the week imperiled.

As a Bear Stearns liquidity crisis rattles markets, more woes are expected in the coming week when Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers and Morgan Stanley announce earnings.

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New York Times: JP Morgan Pays $2 a Share for Bear Stearns

On New York Times:

The agreement ended a day in which bankers and policy makers were racing to complete the takeover agreement before financial markets in Asia opened on Monday, fearing that the financial panic could spread if the 85-year-old investment bank failed to find a buyer.

As the trading day began in Tokyo, however, markets tumbled more than 4 percent. In the United States, investors faced another week of gut-wrenching volatility in American markets.

Despite the sale of Bear, investors fear that others in the industry, like Lehman Brothers, already reeling from losses on mortgage-related investments, could face further blows.

 

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Chronicler of greed, money and trails nobody talks about

Gordon Gecko you never went away.